Estar with age adjectives. A multifactorial bayesian approach to the distribution of copulative verbs across Spanish varieties

Using a Bayesian regression framework, this study examines the distribution of the Spanish copulas ser and estar with age adjectives across dialects based on PRESEEA corpus data. Results reveal a geolectal hierarchy: Mexican, Central American, and Andean varieties show the most advanced innovative use of estar, strongly associated with cuando-clauses and increasing use of the Imperfect tense, suggesting ongoing grammaticalization. European and Rioplatense varieties remain conservative. The findings confirm earlier proposals in the literature but challenge accounts that attribute innovative estar uniformly to subjectivity or evaluative meaning. Objective uses with age adjectives indicate partial neutralization with ser and a broader reorganization of the copular system. The study argues that the phenomenon called ‘innovative estar’ reflects multiple converging processes shaped by adjectival class in some cases, grammaticalization stage, and regional variation.